The World Bank stated in its April outlook for the commodity market that oil prices are expected to rise to an average of US$65/barrel this year, exceeding the average U.S. crude oil prices todayof US$5/barrel in 207, mainly due to strong consumer demand and OPEC’s continued efforts to reduce production.
China Petroleum Network News, June 9 Today's crude oil price fluctuated around 650 US dollars during the Asian trading hours. The top 66 US dollars formed a short-term suppression, and the bottom was temporarily focused on the 65 US dollars support. Due to OPEC's increase in production or less than expected remarks, crude oil prices tend to be bullish in the day.
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In response to the remarks made by the US Secretary of State, Iran immediately responded. Reuters quoted Iranian lawmakers as saying that US Secretary of State Pompeo was dreaming and the United States wanted to force Iran to bow its head. Iranian President Rouhani informed US Secretary of State Pompeo that it is not your turn to decide the issue between Iran and the world.
According to IEA estimates, OPEC and its allies can use about 400,000 barrels of idle oil production capacity for emergency, most of which are in the hands of Saudi Arabia. If the increase in production reached by the OPEC meeting last week is implemented by 0 million barrels per day, and Saudi Arabia’s production is increased to a record-breaking 0.8 million barrels per day next month, about 40% of idle capacity has been consumed, and the emergency capacity available globally will be Only about 6% of the global supply is left. Taking into account the production status of Libya and Venezuela, this emergency reserve is quite dangerous. Many investment banks have raised their oil price expectations on the grounds of insufficient idle capacity.
According to sources, OPEC may decide to relax its requirement for a record-breaking 66% prodU.S. crude oil prices todayuction cut in April and replace it with a supply restriction agreement. Even if OPEC decides to relax output restrictions in June, it may take up to four months to take effect.
The current Brent oil price of US$599/barrel means that the fiscal deficits of countries such as Saudi Arabia and Iraq will become more serious at this stage. It is difficult to maintain the scale of investment in the crude oil industry, making it difficult to reach a consensus on production reduction. In this context, international oil prices have long faced oversupply, and it is likely that they will fall below $45.