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Iran threatens to block the Strait of Hormuz, Rouhani's attitude remains tough, and many countries are unwilling to give up Iranian oil, and the United States' attitude seems to have softened. White House National Security Adviser Bolton stated on October that the Trump administration wants to contain Iran through sanctions, but it does not want to hurt US allies that import Iranian oil. The Trump administration can also understand that some countries cannot completely stop importing Iranian oil. For countries such as South Korea, Iraq, and Afghanistan, the US government will grant some sanctions immunity based on the situation.
Thinking from another perspective, the market proves that the direction of a transaction is wrong will trigger a stop loss, thereby preparing for new trading opportunities. From this point of view, we limit the loss of the transaction and keep the profit open. This It is the so-called truncation of losses, and the premise of making profits surge is in the trend market;
The crude oil market will encounter two key events on Wednesday, one is EIA inventory data, and the other is the Federal Reserve interest rate decision. Various parties have also predicted that there will be huge fluctuations in the crude oil market on Wednesday. However, the actual results are elusive. , EIA inventory last night did not unexpectedly maintain the same result as the API, and the Fed’s interest rate decision also further raised expectations for a June interest rate hike. Under the dual negative effects of negative inventories and a sharp rise in the US dollar, crude oil prices did not There is a huge negative, which is still maintained in the 67-68 range. The anticipated plunge did not occur. The reason is probably that the ready-to-go Iran nuclear storm has hedged the negative impact. After this negative impact, the signal revealed by the crude oil market has become clear.
Related analysis pointed out that given that the United States will not fully resume sanctions immediately, there is an 80-day buffer period that is until 4th of this year. In addition, the decision is not expected to receive support from other countries, which means a reduction of 100,000 for the international oil market. -The supply of 500,000 barrels per day is far lower than the level of 500,000 to 500,000 barrels per day during the Obama era, so the impact on oil prices is limited.
Although Trump subsequently said that Saudi Arabia will increase production by 2 million barrels per day, the market has panicked for a When will crude oil prices reboundshort time, but market participants said that Saudi Arabia is unlikely to increase production by 2 million barrels per day. This is because of the continuous squeezing of idleness worldwide. Capacity.