It is the world's largest crude oil importer. Statistics show that in the first quarter of this year, it imported 100 million tons of crude oil, an increase of 5% year-on-year. Among them, crude oil imports reached 86.08 million tons in January and February alone, setting a reElectronic crude oil pricecord for crude oil imports for seven consecutive years.
Rome believes that Macron may have bought time for the new Iran nuclear agreement to gain support, and given Trump's verbal contempt for this agreement, this in itself is a remarkable achievement. However, this was only a temporary success. The two analysts said: Macron's remarks have not changed our overall view, that is, the probability of the collapse of the Iran nuclear agreement during Trump's first term is 65%.
At the same time, Iran has more stocks, so it may be more willing to export more. Saudi Arabia may not be able to expand its export volume, because according to the reform strategy planned by the country’s 200 Vision, they have huge financial commitments and have already carried out major investment projects at home and abroad.
Venezuela's oil production has fallen, a large amount of Iranian oil supply is in danger, Angola's supply has fallen more than expected, and Brazil's oil production growth has also disappointed. Under this circumstance, Goldman Sachs said that a supply gap of 00 barrels per day may appear as early as this summer.
Another source said that OPEC may adjust the record-high production cut implementation rate by easing supply restrictions, which was 66% in April; OPEC is still studying different situations. Even if a decision is made in June, it will take -4 months. To implement.
This makes Trump's wording somewhat constricElectronic crude oil priceted. A subsequent statement from the U.S. State Department stated that the U.S. government will cooperate in accordance with the conditions of various countries to reduce global crude oil imports to Iran. In fact, this shows from the side that the United States is worried about high oil prices. Since the beginning of 208, the price of gasoline in the United States has been in the process of rising. It once exceeded the US$/gallon, which was much higher than the US$4/gallon in the same period. This has made the market's consumption of gasoline significantly reduced, and high oil prices may cause The acceleration of inflation in the United States will have an impact on the expectations of four interest rate hikes in the United States this year.
As of press time, international crude oil prices have risen slightly by US$0.2, or 0.5%, to US$60/barrel, temporarily stabilizing above US$65. Downside risks still remain. Investors are advised to focus on high-altitude for the time being and should not chase the rise.